First Guest Post

A. LK is writing this post as our first celebrity posting. We have twelve people in our primary league and ALK is one of that keeps up with the baseball news and drafts with passion. Check out his draft and post what you think. You can check out Koz's and Q Town's drafts for the same league in the next couple of days. Email us with comments: thefantasyimact@gmail.com

ALK drafted out of the 5 of 12 spot this season.

1. Chase Utley: A no brainer for me. There was a question as to Utley or Braun, but I like the concept of solidifying the second base position early and thinking about rounding out my offense in the later rounds through the outfield, and I had a feeling I would be able to make another strong move in Round Two (which I was). Shortstop could wait, and unlike Dr. T I never like to take pitching early, as it is so volatile and difficult to predict, most notably with injuries.

2. Adrian Gonzalez: I would have loved Tulo here, but even entering the draft I knew the chances therein were microscopic. Failing him, I liked Gonzalez here for a fairly simple reason: while first base is undoubtedly deep, I didn’t want to be waiting around for a power guy at that position. Looking ahead, I didn’t see another pick I was wild about between Gonzo and my next pick on the turn, so I thought I’d go ahead and beat the rush. I don’t expect another 40 dingers from this guy, but last year his BABIP was a modest .278, an outlier from the previous two years’ .315 and .308. A bounce back in average is completely possible. Moreover, the chance of Mr. Gonzalez being traded (hopefully to the Bosox) and, let’s be honest, any lineup/park pairing is better than the Friars in Petco.

3. Kevin Youkilis: Third base was a must in the third round, and I was lined up to take Zim, Youk or Kung Fu Panda. With Zimmerman taken the pick before I opted to take a Sox hitter for the first time in my history in the Balls. I love Youk and Everyone’s Favorite Baseball Playing Panda for their multiple position eligibility, but Youk’s consistency and strong lineup made him the choice for me. I’ve also heard, through some Boston sources, that he is working out with a guy I knew in High School who is highly respected.

4, 5, 6. My next three picks were outfielders, and I felt I had the luxury to do this after shoring up my infield (barring SS, which I felt comfortable waiting on), and opting to wait on pitching in this draft. Curtis Granderson and Jason Werth provide power and speed combinations I love to have in fantasy players. Mr. Granderson is playing for the Yankees now, where balls fly out of the park and with a nice short right field wall perfect for a lefty pull hitter. He also suffered a low BABIP last year, so I’m hoping for a bounce back in average from him too. Werth is in a contract year, is a legit power/speed threat, plays in the middle of a sick lineup in a bandbox of a stadium, has (as of spring training) a very sharp beard (have you seen this thing? Watch some Phillies games guys, you only wish you could walk around like this), and is in a contract year. The guy stole home for last year for Christ sake. I’m all in. Ethier balances these two out as well as he can, hitting for a higher average even if his homerun power may drop off a hair. I’ll pencil him in for 20-25 dingers and a .280 average.

7. Ubaldo Jimenez: Ubaldo is a guy I was very grateful to have here in the seventh round, and is a legit pick for a first picture. For three straight years he has improved his K/9 and his FIP (3.36 in 2009). He wins games and induces ground balls at a 52% rate. I’m comfortable waiting for that type of trend, especially with how similar his numbers are to Josh Johnson’s, who was taken 14 picks earlier.

8, 9. Continuing to work on my starting rotation I went with Scott Baker, who is consistently underrated and has had a fantastic spring, and Clayton Kershaw, a solid kid who keeps improving. I don’t want to flood you with stats here; the pitching was getting thin and these guys were near the top of my list at this point in the draft. I regret missing out on Billingsly, but you can’t always get all your targets.

10. Here I needed to fill a utility spot, so I took a flyer on Reimold, who as I write this has lost his starting job to Felix Pie. While I suspect this is to keep his Achilles from flaring up again, it is frustrating to not get a full season out of him. He played well with the big club last season and his peripherals support his growth. Bill James projects him for 29 home runs and a .292 average. After all, Reimold made a fantastic debut (.279 average with 15 home runs and 8 stolen bases) with the big club last year. To quote Mr. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs.com, Reimold did all this, “while being hobbled for much of the year with a 25% tear (of his Achilles tendon). What will he do once it heals? At that ADP, the shot at a .280 20+/10 outfielder should make you salivate”. Thank you Mr. Sarris, I’m glad I brought by bib to the draft.

11. Was targeting Andrus for his speed, but didn’t have my heart set on him. Failing him it had to be Alexei Ramirez. Last year in The Balls the GM of the Jacksons reached big for Alexei and he disappointed in a big way. I’m not worried though. Last year Ramirez increased is BB rate from %3.5 in 2008 to %8.1 percent in 2009 while keeping his K rate roughly the same (%12.7 and %12.2 respectively). I’ll expect something in between the 08’ and 09’ Alexeis and be happy with the very possible upside.

12, 13. John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Two more starters to round out the rotation, both young and both White Sox. It is here that I would like to note that four of my five starters have, at a young age (under 30), fulfilled two of the following three catagories: Hits/9 under 8, Walks/9 under three and Strikeouts/9 over 6. These pitchers are Jimenez, Baker, Kershaw and Floyd. These statistics were identified in a recent article by Brad Pinkerton of The Sporting News as solid indicators of pitchers (like Grienke, J. Johnson and King Felix last season) breaking out. Take a look at the rest of the list here. I’ll take correlation like that on my staff all day long. Danks may not fit this mold, but he’s a good young kid who should continue to produce at his current level.

14. Time for a catcher and Kurt Suzuki was it. Was hoping hard for Soto to slip, but I had other fish to fry until now. Suzuki is serviceable and the least offensive as far as the remaining catchers go.

15. Julio Borbon here, and I’m loving every second of it. He slipped, but is worthy of a draft pick with the potential for 30-40 steals and an acceptable average. The Rangers will hit as they always do, so I like him for his run potential as well.

16. Rick Porcello. I like to take more starters than are necessary, as some don’t always pan out. Porcello is a young kid with upside. If the rest don’t pan out I have a fallback.

17, 18, 20. Octavio Dotel and Chris Perez. Time for some cheap saves, as I hate to pay for them. Two rounds later, in 20, I take Franklin Morales, another cheap option filling in. I’m willing to watch the waivers and play the reliever game. If I have to, I’m willing to punt saves in favor of starting pitching…

19. …Leading to Jeff Niemann. I’m not in love with this guy, but believe it or not he fits the “Holy Trinity” two out of three mentioned above, and is a top prospect. As I write this I believe I have dropped him for another reliever, Matt Thornton, a hard throwing kid who could garner some saves if Jenks continues to struggle or gets badly injured.

C Suzuki (14)
1B A. Gonzalez (2)
2B Utley (1)
3B Youk (3)
SS Alexei Ramirez (11)
Of Graderson (4)
Of Werth (5)
Of Ethier (6)
Util Reimold (10)
Bench Borbon (15)
P Ubaldo (7)
P Kershaw (8)
P Baker (9)
P Danks (12)
P G. Floyd (13)
P Porcello (16)
Bench Dotel (17)
Bench C. Perez (18)
Bench Niemann (19)
Bench F. Morales (20)