Dr. T
The following is a list of outfielders that are most likely on your waiver wires right now that deserve to have a look or at least added to your watch list.
1. Kyle Blanks: As I have stated in my draft, I drank the Koolaid and ended up getting him in the tenth round just to insure that he was on my team this season. This is a super power prospect from San Diego, 6'6" and 275. Blanks has been slugging the ball while in the majors, with an average homerun every 14.8 at bats. The best part about Blanks is that he is disciplined at the plate and has a good eye. If you have a bench spot, he is worth the pick up right now.
2. Chris Young: I know, he did not exactly blow people away last year with a sub 230 average a few homeruns and a couple of stolen bases however this is a player that has been successful in this league in the past and deserves a look, he may not steal you 30 bases but the power is legitimate and he will still have doubt digit SBs. Keep an eye on him, I think he is going to have a great season.
3. Austin Jackson: This young outfielder in Detroit is the reason that Curtis Granderson is now a Yankee. Jackson has been tested at the top of the lineup and is already finding it to be a great fit this spring. I may not expect 20HRs from the player but you should see 10+HRs and most likely 20SBs. I think that this is being conservative but hey, I am just trying to help.
Honorable Mention:
Drew Stubbs (CIN)
Colby Rasmus (STL)
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Wednesday, March 31, 2010
First Guest Post
A. LK is writing this post as our first celebrity posting. We have twelve people in our primary league and ALK is one of that keeps up with the baseball news and drafts with passion. Check out his draft and post what you think. You can check out Koz's and Q Town's drafts for the same league in the next couple of days. Email us with comments: thefantasyimact@gmail.com
ALK drafted out of the 5 of 12 spot this season.
1. Chase Utley: A no brainer for me. There was a question as to Utley or Braun, but I like the concept of solidifying the second base position early and thinking about rounding out my offense in the later rounds through the outfield, and I had a feeling I would be able to make another strong move in Round Two (which I was). Shortstop could wait, and unlike Dr. T I never like to take pitching early, as it is so volatile and difficult to predict, most notably with injuries.
2. Adrian Gonzalez: I would have loved Tulo here, but even entering the draft I knew the chances therein were microscopic. Failing him, I liked Gonzalez here for a fairly simple reason: while first base is undoubtedly deep, I didn’t want to be waiting around for a power guy at that position. Looking ahead, I didn’t see another pick I was wild about between Gonzo and my next pick on the turn, so I thought I’d go ahead and beat the rush. I don’t expect another 40 dingers from this guy, but last year his BABIP was a modest .278, an outlier from the previous two years’ .315 and .308. A bounce back in average is completely possible. Moreover, the chance of Mr. Gonzalez being traded (hopefully to the Bosox) and, let’s be honest, any lineup/park pairing is better than the Friars in Petco.
3. Kevin Youkilis: Third base was a must in the third round, and I was lined up to take Zim, Youk or Kung Fu Panda. With Zimmerman taken the pick before I opted to take a Sox hitter for the first time in my history in the Balls. I love Youk and Everyone’s Favorite Baseball Playing Panda for their multiple position eligibility, but Youk’s consistency and strong lineup made him the choice for me. I’ve also heard, through some Boston sources, that he is working out with a guy I knew in High School who is highly respected.
4, 5, 6. My next three picks were outfielders, and I felt I had the luxury to do this after shoring up my infield (barring SS, which I felt comfortable waiting on), and opting to wait on pitching in this draft. Curtis Granderson and Jason Werth provide power and speed combinations I love to have in fantasy players. Mr. Granderson is playing for the Yankees now, where balls fly out of the park and with a nice short right field wall perfect for a lefty pull hitter. He also suffered a low BABIP last year, so I’m hoping for a bounce back in average from him too. Werth is in a contract year, is a legit power/speed threat, plays in the middle of a sick lineup in a bandbox of a stadium, has (as of spring training) a very sharp beard (have you seen this thing? Watch some Phillies games guys, you only wish you could walk around like this), and is in a contract year. The guy stole home for last year for Christ sake. I’m all in. Ethier balances these two out as well as he can, hitting for a higher average even if his homerun power may drop off a hair. I’ll pencil him in for 20-25 dingers and a .280 average.
7. Ubaldo Jimenez: Ubaldo is a guy I was very grateful to have here in the seventh round, and is a legit pick for a first picture. For three straight years he has improved his K/9 and his FIP (3.36 in 2009). He wins games and induces ground balls at a 52% rate. I’m comfortable waiting for that type of trend, especially with how similar his numbers are to Josh Johnson’s, who was taken 14 picks earlier.
8, 9. Continuing to work on my starting rotation I went with Scott Baker, who is consistently underrated and has had a fantastic spring, and Clayton Kershaw, a solid kid who keeps improving. I don’t want to flood you with stats here; the pitching was getting thin and these guys were near the top of my list at this point in the draft. I regret missing out on Billingsly, but you can’t always get all your targets.
10. Here I needed to fill a utility spot, so I took a flyer on Reimold, who as I write this has lost his starting job to Felix Pie. While I suspect this is to keep his Achilles from flaring up again, it is frustrating to not get a full season out of him. He played well with the big club last season and his peripherals support his growth. Bill James projects him for 29 home runs and a .292 average. After all, Reimold made a fantastic debut (.279 average with 15 home runs and 8 stolen bases) with the big club last year. To quote Mr. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs.com, Reimold did all this, “while being hobbled for much of the year with a 25% tear (of his Achilles tendon). What will he do once it heals? At that ADP, the shot at a .280 20+/10 outfielder should make you salivate”. Thank you Mr. Sarris, I’m glad I brought by bib to the draft.
11. Was targeting Andrus for his speed, but didn’t have my heart set on him. Failing him it had to be Alexei Ramirez. Last year in The Balls the GM of the Jacksons reached big for Alexei and he disappointed in a big way. I’m not worried though. Last year Ramirez increased is BB rate from %3.5 in 2008 to %8.1 percent in 2009 while keeping his K rate roughly the same (%12.7 and %12.2 respectively). I’ll expect something in between the 08’ and 09’ Alexeis and be happy with the very possible upside.
12, 13. John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Two more starters to round out the rotation, both young and both White Sox. It is here that I would like to note that four of my five starters have, at a young age (under 30), fulfilled two of the following three catagories: Hits/9 under 8, Walks/9 under three and Strikeouts/9 over 6. These pitchers are Jimenez, Baker, Kershaw and Floyd. These statistics were identified in a recent article by Brad Pinkerton of The Sporting News as solid indicators of pitchers (like Grienke, J. Johnson and King Felix last season) breaking out. Take a look at the rest of the list here. I’ll take correlation like that on my staff all day long. Danks may not fit this mold, but he’s a good young kid who should continue to produce at his current level.
14. Time for a catcher and Kurt Suzuki was it. Was hoping hard for Soto to slip, but I had other fish to fry until now. Suzuki is serviceable and the least offensive as far as the remaining catchers go.
15. Julio Borbon here, and I’m loving every second of it. He slipped, but is worthy of a draft pick with the potential for 30-40 steals and an acceptable average. The Rangers will hit as they always do, so I like him for his run potential as well.
16. Rick Porcello. I like to take more starters than are necessary, as some don’t always pan out. Porcello is a young kid with upside. If the rest don’t pan out I have a fallback.
17, 18, 20. Octavio Dotel and Chris Perez. Time for some cheap saves, as I hate to pay for them. Two rounds later, in 20, I take Franklin Morales, another cheap option filling in. I’m willing to watch the waivers and play the reliever game. If I have to, I’m willing to punt saves in favor of starting pitching…
19. …Leading to Jeff Niemann. I’m not in love with this guy, but believe it or not he fits the “Holy Trinity” two out of three mentioned above, and is a top prospect. As I write this I believe I have dropped him for another reliever, Matt Thornton, a hard throwing kid who could garner some saves if Jenks continues to struggle or gets badly injured.
C Suzuki (14)
1B A. Gonzalez (2)
2B Utley (1)
3B Youk (3)
SS Alexei Ramirez (11)
Of Graderson (4)
Of Werth (5)
Of Ethier (6)
Util Reimold (10)
Bench Borbon (15)
P Ubaldo (7)
P Kershaw (8)
P Baker (9)
P Danks (12)
P G. Floyd (13)
P Porcello (16)
Bench Dotel (17)
Bench C. Perez (18)
Bench Niemann (19)
Bench F. Morales (20)
ALK drafted out of the 5 of 12 spot this season.
1. Chase Utley: A no brainer for me. There was a question as to Utley or Braun, but I like the concept of solidifying the second base position early and thinking about rounding out my offense in the later rounds through the outfield, and I had a feeling I would be able to make another strong move in Round Two (which I was). Shortstop could wait, and unlike Dr. T I never like to take pitching early, as it is so volatile and difficult to predict, most notably with injuries.
2. Adrian Gonzalez: I would have loved Tulo here, but even entering the draft I knew the chances therein were microscopic. Failing him, I liked Gonzalez here for a fairly simple reason: while first base is undoubtedly deep, I didn’t want to be waiting around for a power guy at that position. Looking ahead, I didn’t see another pick I was wild about between Gonzo and my next pick on the turn, so I thought I’d go ahead and beat the rush. I don’t expect another 40 dingers from this guy, but last year his BABIP was a modest .278, an outlier from the previous two years’ .315 and .308. A bounce back in average is completely possible. Moreover, the chance of Mr. Gonzalez being traded (hopefully to the Bosox) and, let’s be honest, any lineup/park pairing is better than the Friars in Petco.
3. Kevin Youkilis: Third base was a must in the third round, and I was lined up to take Zim, Youk or Kung Fu Panda. With Zimmerman taken the pick before I opted to take a Sox hitter for the first time in my history in the Balls. I love Youk and Everyone’s Favorite Baseball Playing Panda for their multiple position eligibility, but Youk’s consistency and strong lineup made him the choice for me. I’ve also heard, through some Boston sources, that he is working out with a guy I knew in High School who is highly respected.
4, 5, 6. My next three picks were outfielders, and I felt I had the luxury to do this after shoring up my infield (barring SS, which I felt comfortable waiting on), and opting to wait on pitching in this draft. Curtis Granderson and Jason Werth provide power and speed combinations I love to have in fantasy players. Mr. Granderson is playing for the Yankees now, where balls fly out of the park and with a nice short right field wall perfect for a lefty pull hitter. He also suffered a low BABIP last year, so I’m hoping for a bounce back in average from him too. Werth is in a contract year, is a legit power/speed threat, plays in the middle of a sick lineup in a bandbox of a stadium, has (as of spring training) a very sharp beard (have you seen this thing? Watch some Phillies games guys, you only wish you could walk around like this), and is in a contract year. The guy stole home for last year for Christ sake. I’m all in. Ethier balances these two out as well as he can, hitting for a higher average even if his homerun power may drop off a hair. I’ll pencil him in for 20-25 dingers and a .280 average.
7. Ubaldo Jimenez: Ubaldo is a guy I was very grateful to have here in the seventh round, and is a legit pick for a first picture. For three straight years he has improved his K/9 and his FIP (3.36 in 2009). He wins games and induces ground balls at a 52% rate. I’m comfortable waiting for that type of trend, especially with how similar his numbers are to Josh Johnson’s, who was taken 14 picks earlier.
8, 9. Continuing to work on my starting rotation I went with Scott Baker, who is consistently underrated and has had a fantastic spring, and Clayton Kershaw, a solid kid who keeps improving. I don’t want to flood you with stats here; the pitching was getting thin and these guys were near the top of my list at this point in the draft. I regret missing out on Billingsly, but you can’t always get all your targets.
10. Here I needed to fill a utility spot, so I took a flyer on Reimold, who as I write this has lost his starting job to Felix Pie. While I suspect this is to keep his Achilles from flaring up again, it is frustrating to not get a full season out of him. He played well with the big club last season and his peripherals support his growth. Bill James projects him for 29 home runs and a .292 average. After all, Reimold made a fantastic debut (.279 average with 15 home runs and 8 stolen bases) with the big club last year. To quote Mr. Eno Sarris of Fangraphs.com, Reimold did all this, “while being hobbled for much of the year with a 25% tear (of his Achilles tendon). What will he do once it heals? At that ADP, the shot at a .280 20+/10 outfielder should make you salivate”. Thank you Mr. Sarris, I’m glad I brought by bib to the draft.
11. Was targeting Andrus for his speed, but didn’t have my heart set on him. Failing him it had to be Alexei Ramirez. Last year in The Balls the GM of the Jacksons reached big for Alexei and he disappointed in a big way. I’m not worried though. Last year Ramirez increased is BB rate from %3.5 in 2008 to %8.1 percent in 2009 while keeping his K rate roughly the same (%12.7 and %12.2 respectively). I’ll expect something in between the 08’ and 09’ Alexeis and be happy with the very possible upside.
12, 13. John Danks and Gavin Floyd. Two more starters to round out the rotation, both young and both White Sox. It is here that I would like to note that four of my five starters have, at a young age (under 30), fulfilled two of the following three catagories: Hits/9 under 8, Walks/9 under three and Strikeouts/9 over 6. These pitchers are Jimenez, Baker, Kershaw and Floyd. These statistics were identified in a recent article by Brad Pinkerton of The Sporting News as solid indicators of pitchers (like Grienke, J. Johnson and King Felix last season) breaking out. Take a look at the rest of the list here. I’ll take correlation like that on my staff all day long. Danks may not fit this mold, but he’s a good young kid who should continue to produce at his current level.
14. Time for a catcher and Kurt Suzuki was it. Was hoping hard for Soto to slip, but I had other fish to fry until now. Suzuki is serviceable and the least offensive as far as the remaining catchers go.
15. Julio Borbon here, and I’m loving every second of it. He slipped, but is worthy of a draft pick with the potential for 30-40 steals and an acceptable average. The Rangers will hit as they always do, so I like him for his run potential as well.
16. Rick Porcello. I like to take more starters than are necessary, as some don’t always pan out. Porcello is a young kid with upside. If the rest don’t pan out I have a fallback.
17, 18, 20. Octavio Dotel and Chris Perez. Time for some cheap saves, as I hate to pay for them. Two rounds later, in 20, I take Franklin Morales, another cheap option filling in. I’m willing to watch the waivers and play the reliever game. If I have to, I’m willing to punt saves in favor of starting pitching…
19. …Leading to Jeff Niemann. I’m not in love with this guy, but believe it or not he fits the “Holy Trinity” two out of three mentioned above, and is a top prospect. As I write this I believe I have dropped him for another reliever, Matt Thornton, a hard throwing kid who could garner some saves if Jenks continues to struggle or gets badly injured.
C Suzuki (14)
1B A. Gonzalez (2)
2B Utley (1)
3B Youk (3)
SS Alexei Ramirez (11)
Of Graderson (4)
Of Werth (5)
Of Ethier (6)
Util Reimold (10)
Bench Borbon (15)
P Ubaldo (7)
P Kershaw (8)
P Baker (9)
P Danks (12)
P G. Floyd (13)
P Porcello (16)
Bench Dotel (17)
Bench C. Perez (18)
Bench Niemann (19)
Bench F. Morales (20)
Dr. T's Draft and Rationale
Dr. T
Can selecting top pitching talent make you a viable contender? See the pitching strategy article that I wrote before this. Although I feel like I did not fully commit, I hope I make a run at contention and maybe even a title.
We recently finished our third draft of the season, a mixed league, 5X5, head-to-head league. For a while now I have discussed the draft strategy of taking established aces early and filling in the holes of your offense later in the draft. I felt that this was finally the year to do it. Are pitchers really valued where they should be?
How this began: I have been playing in this league for four years now and we have a very competitive vibe with at least eight of the twelve members being avid baseball fans and all of them up to date on the relevant fantasy news, making drafting competitive, fun, and slightly nerve racking. This year I was given the second draft pick. What the hell do you do with this draft pick? I hate this spot this year and for offensively minded individuals I think the later your pick this season the more value you can find (ie going back to back picks with Evan Longoria and Ryan Howard or Mark Texaria and Joe Mauer) What do I do with mine, I take Alex Rodriguez and hope for talent to fall, good luck to me. It just so happens that Roy Halladay slipped to me, talent? Certainly this year in Philly he is arguably the most valuable pitcher, being offensively minded in the first couple of rounds going in to the draft this threw me. You have to take him right? Right.
What about the third round?
So I go A-Rod to Halladay and two selections later am now staring at Zack Greinke, Derek Jeter, Ryan Zimmerman, and Kevin Youkilis. Where is the value? Is it time for me to test my pitching idea? It certainly is. I take Zack Greinke in the third round, giving me now two true aces and a power hitter with speed and the possibility of a career year at a position that is shallow this year. I am feeling good.
So time to start filling the infield:
My draft strategy from the get go this year was to draft the infield with high price, early round talent that provides power and average. Can you still do this with my pitching strategy? I feel that this season, more than most we have a slue of five-tooled outfielders that may not give you a 300 average but certainly can provide you with 17 HRs and double digit steals. I guarantee you if you go to your waiver wires right now you can find five outfielders with this potential where you doubtfully could find one infielder with these sorts of numbers. TAKE YOUR INFIELD EARLY AND FILL YOUR OUTFIELD IN THE LATER ROUNDS.
Fourth round, very late in the round, I took Victor Martinez. I filled a very shallow position with someone that is going to give me great average, maybe 20HRs and 100RBIs this season. This is a position that I feel you need to take very early, first six rounds (Weiters being the last one in this category and even he is a question mark this season still) or wait and get your catchers in the 12th round or later.
Fifth round, Kendry Morales. I personally think that first base has a lot of value and I could see somebody waiting on someone as low as Adam Laroche if they believe in his move this year. But I wanted to make sure that I could still lock down 30HRs at this position and although Lance Berkman and Derek Lee are still out there, I think that they have a few too many question marks about them. Also having taken second and third round offense off the board with pitchers Morales is a great value player to get in the fifth. Look for him in your league, he could be my saving grace this season.
Sixth Round, Elvis Andrus. Although there is hype around him and I reached a full round ahead I think that locking up another position of scarcity with a guy that has potential for 50 SBs and a good average (projected at 280) is what I needed to do, knowing that he would not get back to me at the end of the sixth round.
Taking two elite pitchers has allowed me to find value in the these rounds and I think if I would have committed to this theory whole heartedly I would have rounded out my top three pitchers in the fifth and looked for Alcides Escobar, and reached a round early for him (maybe 12 or 13). I think in most boards you would be able to look at Hanson or Beckett right here giving your staff a ridiculously good top three pitchers. These pitchers were not there for me so I ended up filling this position. I am not in love with Ubaldo Jimenez this season and would rather find someone I like in a few rounds to finish out my top three pitchers.
Seventh Round, Torii Hunter. Giving me late round power mixed with some speed and could be a decent anchor in my outfield for the question marks that I will be looking at later.
Eighth Round, Jose Lopez. Why is Jose Lopez ranked this low this season? A guy that will be eligible for both 2nd and 3rd in two short weeks and can still put up 24HRs this season with an average of over 275. There is a plenty of value here and I filled my last position of need.
Ninth Round, time to finish up the top three with what I see is tremendous value, John lackey. I have been a Lackey fan for years and I know, his Fenway numbers are not good. Call it a gut feeling but I think he is going to be a legitimate number two pitcher this season. I know he has some injury issues but he has looked great so far and the Sox pitching coach, is one of the best out there. Lots of value for the 98th overall pick. Top three pitchers locked in and only one outfielder; where to?
Tenth Round, Chris Davis. I know, big risk and with an already risky strategy for this season but I like his numbers his minor league stats are through the roof and we know the power is legitimate. Again with second and third round offense off the board I need some big numbers late and I think Davis can produce.
Eleventh Round, call me crazy and yes, this is the reach of the draft, looking for top tier talent this late is only going to come through the unknown rookies or bounce back candidate. Rookie it is, KYLE BLANKS. I too have drank the Koolaid here. I think that Blanks is a legimate top tier player and should be able to prove himself this season hitting behind a second rounder (Adrian Gonzalez). Look for him late in drafts. Feel free to not take him this high but if you want him on your team you are going to have to reach as he is climbing in average draft position quickly. This is a guy who hit a home run every 14.8 at bats. Only seven other guys in MLB do this. Pujols is every 12.8.
Looking for talent in the twelfth round, Carlos Beltran come on down. With rehab going as well as it is and he stating that the pain is gone I had to take the flyer on him. Today it was stated that he may only end up out for the first 30 days of baseball. This was one of the only true 30-30 guys out there. I think if you can get him here you have to take him. At this point I do think that there are a few too many questions on my team but this is a questionable strategy.
Thirteenth and Fourteenth Rounds, Closer time Qualls and Valverde. I unlike many others like to have some saves on my team. Although I do not like to pay for high round closers (Broxton, Rivera, or Pap) I do like to take closers that are somewhat established and are not going to lose their job immediately after the season starts. This strategy begins and ends with a strong pitching staff.
Fifteenth Round, Franklin Gutierrez. Another outfielder that has a ton of value being taken with the 170th pick overall. 25HRs and a 275 average this late is just fine by me. I like Seattle this season and think that they are going to be putting more people on base, giving Gutierrez a chance to bring in his fair share of RBIs as well.
Sixteenth Round, time to bring in some possible aces this season, Wade Davis. Although he hasn’t had the best spring I have been told that he is possibly one of the best rookie pitchers out there and could have some serious impact on a fantasy team this year. At 191 I will take a shot and hope that he pans out. With the lineup that he has behind him and a good fast and curve ball. I think that he starts with some wins and hopefully adds strikeouts as the season progresses.
Seventeenth Round, Jon Rauch. Although this was before the news that Minnesota was going to a closer by committee at the beginning of the season, I still stand behind this pick. Rauch has closed with some efficiency in the past and I think it is only a matter of time before he ends up with the fulltime role. I will however be monitoring this situation very closely and be shopping for RPs this season with a question mark like this and a team that hinges on Ks ERA and WHIP.
Eighteenth Round, Scot Feldman. I am no idiot, I do not expect the same numbers as last season but at the same time I find it hard to believe that Nolan Ryan is putting a kid pitcher out there opening day that he doesn’t see something in. Call it a hunch but the kid has something. I like him this late.
Nineteenth Round, time to take a flyer. With Jose Lopez being able to swing the 2 and 3 bag I wanted to see how Scot Sizemore, the 2nd baseman in Detroit, can do this season. A big prospect in Detroit this season. I like him this late and took him in my keeper league as well. Could end up on the waivers if he doesn’t produce quickly but who knows. I think you could take a shot here on any late rounder prospect that you like i.e. David Freese, Drew Stubbs, Austin Jackson, Colby Rasmus. See who is around and maybe give them a shot if you like. With this strategy I would have suggested an OF for myself but I seem to gravitate towards Sizemore for some reason.
And finally the twentieth round, Drum Roll Please…. Derek Lowe. I know, who knows what he is going to do this season. I will give him a couple of starts and see what develops. Great bounce back season last year. I wanted Ervin Santana here but he was taken two picks in front of me somehow. Keep your eye on him as well. I think he could have a great bounce back year.
Alright I want to hear from everybody. Do you like the draft? Does it have potential? Have you ever fully committed to a pitching heavy strategy and has it worked out? LETS HEAR IT!
C Victor Martinez (5)
1 Kendry Morales (4)
2 Jose Lopez (8)
3 Alex Ridriguez (1)
SS Elvis Andrus (6)
OF Torii Hunter (7)
OF Kyle Blanks (11)
OF Franklin Guterriez (15)
UTIL Chris Davis (10)
SP Roy Halladay (2)
SP Zack Greinke (3)
SP John Lackey (9)
SP Wade Davis (16)
SP Scot Feldman (18)
RP Chad Qualls (14)
RP Jose Valverde (13)
RP Jon Rauch (17)
BE Carlos Beltran (12)
BE Scott Sizemore (19)
BE Derek Lowe (20)
Pitching Strategy; Can it Make a Championship Team/Contender?
Dr. T
I have been toiling with the idea of drafting with my focus being on pitching and coming up with a top three pitching squad that are all established, true, ACES. Talking the likes of Halladay, Greinke, J. Santana, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Dan Haren, Tim Lincecum, and Wainwright (some would put Cliff Lee here, call it a hunch but I am not sure he is going for the three-peat I also am worried about him being injured already. That being said I have him as my “ace” in an AL only league, YIKES!) If you have three of these pitchers in the first six rounds or better than how can you compete with the likes of people with a 1,2,3 of Braun, Rollins, and Kinsler (I know Rollins is one that is questionably over the hill but if you haven’t heard Rollins is talking about stealing 50 bases this season and injury riddled Kinsler who was 30-30 last year at a position that is always coveted.) Can you do this? I think I am going to but something like it to the test and see what comes up.
Alright I want to hear from everybody. Does it have potential? Have you ever fully committed to a pitching heavy strategy and has it worked out? LETS HEAR IT! I am going to post my draft results shortly afterwards and see what you think.
Thursday, February 25, 2010
Keeper Cast
Hello loyal viewers and readers,
Are you on the fence about some keepers and your keeper deadline is coming up? Are you worried about keeping talent or value? Do you loose sleep at night and get irritated eyes from reading about fantasy baseball on your computer. Are your relationships failing? Do you find yourself waking up in a cold sweat because you took Jose Reyes too early and decided Jason Heyward was worth $25?
Well we can help with the first stuff.
Check out our Keeper Cast on Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/user/TheFantasyImpact. You will also find our previous casts here and some hilarious outtakes. It has been posted on the site for your convienence.
Also follow us on Twitter because we are now down with the get down: fantasyimpact.\
Also, email us for godsakes: thefantasyimpact@gmail.com.
The Koz
Are you on the fence about some keepers and your keeper deadline is coming up? Are you worried about keeping talent or value? Do you loose sleep at night and get irritated eyes from reading about fantasy baseball on your computer. Are your relationships failing? Do you find yourself waking up in a cold sweat because you took Jose Reyes too early and decided Jason Heyward was worth $25?
Well we can help with the first stuff.
Check out our Keeper Cast on Youtube: http://www.youtube.com/user/TheFantasyImpact. You will also find our previous casts here and some hilarious outtakes. It has been posted on the site for your convienence.
Also follow us on Twitter because we are now down with the get down: fantasyimpact.\
Also, email us for godsakes: thefantasyimpact@gmail.com.
The Koz
Tuesday, February 23, 2010
Tom Verducci: Trend setter or just hot air?
Fantasy Baseball is all about finding that extra edge your competitors overlook. Whether it’s taking a flier on an injured pitcher with upside late in the draft, or utilizing those extra stats such as BABIP (batting average on balls in play) and xFIP (fielding independent pitching), finding an unexploited edge over the competition is crucial. In this spirit we will examine SI columnist Tom Verducci’s “Year after effect”, or has it’s become known “The Verducci Effect”.
The year after effect lays out the theory that young pitchers under 25 will suffer quite seriously either by injury or by decreased performance the year after having their workload increase by 30 innings or more from the previous year. The rationale as explained by Verducci is that young pitchers bodies should be eased into the rigors of a full season or by industry standards 200 innings per year. The increased stress of 30+ innings can lead to serious injury or serious fatigue leading to sloppy mechanics resulting in a decrease in performance. In his own words,
"It's like training for a marathon. You need to build stamina incrementally. The unofficial industry standard is that no young pitcher should throw more than 30 more innings than he did the previous season. It's a general rule of thumb, and one I've been tracking for about a decade. When teams violate the incremental safeguard, it's amazing how often they pay for it." –Tom Verducci, SI sports
Verducci has been studying this trend for 10 years and has a relatively impressive track record if you add injuries and inflated ERA.
As you can see there are some pretty big names on the list including Francisco Liriano a few years back, and Cole Hamels as recently as last year. There are also those names that have come through unscathed such as Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, Tim Lincecum, and Jon Lester. This year’s list highlights young guns such as Felix Hernandez, Josh Johnson, Max Scherzer, Joba Chamberlain, Homer Bailey, Wade Davis, and Rick Porcello. Hit the link to read the latest at risk pitchers.
Examining past history, a few if not more of these pitchers will break down or suffer regression this year. The question is how can we accurately predict which ones?
Verducci admits himself that “The year after effect” is not an exact science. He cautions to use it as more of a guideline than a rule to be strictly followed. To that end, there have been many critical of the theory for a number of reasons. Popular critiques include the volatility of pitching health in general. Of course there will be significant breakdown in pitching health, it is after all the most violent and unnatural motion the human body is capable of. This obvious observation would explain away the injury aspect of “The year after effect”. The other hole in the theory rests in using ERA as a measuring stick as to success or failure of a pitcher. It has become widely accepted that ERA is less an indicator of pitching success than more accurate ways to measure pitching such as WHIP (walks+hits per inning) or the more advanced xFIP (fielding independent Pitching) which essentially measures how a pitcher would fare with league average defense behind them, in a league average ballpark. Therefore, while Verducci claims to have hit on players such as Mike Pelfrey due to ballooning ERA, Pelfrey’s xFIP the year before indicated his ERA was artificially low and that a regression was near unavoidable. Essentially, the reliance on ERA and health have been widely regarded as suspect measuring devices for future performance. While both of these arguments are one hundred percent correct, it does not mean “The year after effect” should be dismissed outright.
As Verducci says the effect should be used as an indicator of potential disaster, not a guarantee. With that in mind Verducci’s list still holds plenty of value to enterprising fantasy managers. By taking the list and further examining the names, we can absolutely find red flags. For instance Homer Bailey has been blessed with a manager who truly believes in him. Dusty Baker has always believed in his pitchers. So much so that he has a tendency to ignore all normal pitching precautions and toss his young guns to the wolves. Bailey’s increase of 55.1 innings won’t stop Dusty from pitching that poor man into the ground. As a result of his innings increase and current situation, you will not see Bailey anywhere near my teams until 2012 after his impending Tommy John surgery.
On the other end of the spectrum Felix Hernandez will be on any and all of my teams whenever I can get him. What makes him different than Bailey even though he is 23 and increased his innings by 38 is that he has the background to sustain his increase. For years the Mariners have closely monitored King Felix and made sure his workload has not exceeded his physical growth. Remember that Hernandez made his big league debut at 19 years old and has been pitching in the big leagues for 4 years now. In 2005 when Felix was 19 his workload increased by 23 innings and the next year by 18.2. Essentially, the King has a head start on the other young guns on this list because of his longer history of steady work increase, and the careful planning of the Seattle staff.
These examples of pitchers who are more likely to succeed and due for a blowout highlight what I feel the importance of “The year after effect” is. It gathers a solid group of at risk pitchers for us dedicated managers to research. Considering Verducci’s track record, the players on this year’s list will have a red flag attached until proven otherwise in my book. However it is critical to do your own research and not see “The effect” in black and white terms. Projection in itself is essentially an educated guess. Personally, if I go down in flames this year, I want to go down on my projections.
| Pitchers At Risk 2010 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| * = Previous career high occurred prior to most recent season. |
Wednesday, December 2, 2009
And We're Up
We have officially gone on the air. We hope you enjoy our expert analysis, our charm, and our obsessive humor.
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Kyle McMurphey (AKA The Koz)
You can view our analysis here on our blog:
Our most recent videos will be playable at the top of the blog and preceeding videos can be viewed at the bottom.
Or on YouTube: TFI on YouTube. Don't forget to subscribe to our channel and leave us feedback.
Thanks,
Kyle McMurphey (AKA The Koz)
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